wvgazette.com
By Phil Kabler
After months of speculation, it was a little anti-climatic when Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., announced he was staying put in Washington rather than opting for a third term as governor.
While some state Democrats were practically begging Manchin to come back, there were some sound reasons for Manchin to stay, even if he would have been all but assured of winning the governor’s race.
First, it’s no secret Manchin relishes the media spotlight, and in his new capacity as a key moderate Democrat swing vote in the Senate, his star will shine even brighter with more frequent appearances on national newscasts such as “Morning Joe” and “Face the Nation.”
Needless to say, the network TV bookers wouldn’t come calling very often if Manchin were back as governor of a small, poor, politically insignificant state – short of a major flood, mine disaster, or other catastrophe. In terms of star power, going from appearances on “Face the Nation” to “Decision Makers” is a steep drop, indeed.
Secondly, I suspect Manchin heeded a lesson learned from family friend Arch A. Moore Jr.: It’s much easier to govern in good economic times.
Had Moore left well enough alone after his first two terms as governor, his legacy might have been as overseeing an unprecedented era of road and bridge building and public works expansion, in an administration that was touched, but not defined, by episodes of political corruption and malfeasance.
Then Moore made the mistake of getting elected to a third term in 1984, and with a weak economy and a down-cycle in the coal industry, those four years were an unmitigated disaster, marked by endless feuding with a Legislature controlled by the other party.
In 1988, with the state unable to pay its bills and hospitals refusing to accept PEIA coverage, Moore was trounced by political newcomer Gaston Caperton. History will probably most remember Moore for political corruption, culminating with a stint in federal prison for extortion and mail fraud following that third term.
Even today, each year’s budget devotes hundreds of millions of dollars to pay off long-term deficits in state pension and Workers’ Compensation fund that were incurred during Moore’s third term.
Whoever is elected governor in 2016 won’t have a cakewalk. Coal presumably will continue its inevitable decline. Costs for billion-dollar health care programs PEIA and Medicaid will assuredly continue to outpace growth in the economy. The state’s workforce will continue to grow older, and will remain undereducated and ill-prepared for high-tech jobs. Lottery revenues that allowed the state to invest in special projects and soften the blow of economic downturns will continue to dry up in the face of ever-growing competition from casinos in neighboring states. A drug abuse epidemic in many parts of the state is unlikely to miraculously disappear on election night.
As it stands now, Manchin’s gubernatorial legacy is strong. Under his tenure, the state privatized Workers’ Comp, strengthened mine safety regulations (some of which were rolled back by the current Legislature), cut taxes, established long-term plans to pay down the aforementioned Workers’ Comp and pension fund deficits, fully funded its Rainy Day reserve funds, invested more than $1 billion in water, sewer and infrastructure projects, and even enhanced state pride by restoring the Capitol dome to its original grandeur.
While Manchin is a tireless worker and eternal optimist, odds are that a third term as governor would only serve to diminish the legacy of his first two terms. (Or is it, term and two-thirds?)
Meanwhile, billionaire Jim Justice’s floating of a trial balloon on running for governor (courtesy of the Register-Herald’s Pam Pritt) obviously generated a lot of buzz.
Without reiterating his pros (goodwill over saving The Greenbrier resort, bringing the PGA tour and the New Orleans Saints training camp to West Virginia, job creation), and cons (delinquent fines for safety and environmental violations at his coal mines, a reputation for failing to pay contractors timely), Justice’s greatest asset as a Democratic candidate in 2016 could be that he is not a politician.
Undoubtedly, Republican operatives will try to play the Barack Obama boogie man card for one last election cycle in 2016, but they’ll be hard-pressed to tie Justice to Obama. (One can picture Justice, in his folksy tone, saying, “I don’t believe I’ve ever met the fella…”)
The last time West Virginia elected a governor with no political background or experience, things worked out reasonably well.
Lacking background in politics or state government, Caperton surrounded himself with an experienced team of senior staff that included Phil Reale, Tom Heywood, and John Perdue.
If a similar scenario plays out in 2016, Justice would be well-served to keep as much of Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin’s executive staff in place as possible.
Finally, there could be another advantage to having a billionaire as governor: When faced with multi-million dollar funding gaps in the state budget, as we’ve experienced the past couple of years, instead of dipping into the Rainy Day fund to make up the shortfall, he could simply write a check.
Reach Phil Kabler at philk@wvgazette.com, 304-348-1220, or follow @PhilKabler on Twitter.